Vikings vs. Bears
Saturday, October 18, 2008
These are two very similar teams. Both have great defenses anchored around a great D-Line. The Vikings are better up front on offense but Chicago's offense has fared much better so far this season. According to DVOA Chicago's offense has been the 14th best in the NFL so far this season while the Vikings have been 24th. The other area where the Bears have seriously outperformed the Vikings is on special teams. The Vikings are ranked dead last in the NFL where the Bears have been a little above average.
Really I don't know what to say about the Vikings. If they offense doesn't play like shit and their offensively playcalling isn't shit I think they are the better team. They certainly haven't played like it so far though. Containing Devon Hester is obv. going to be huge too. That's really all there is to it. I'm sure I sound like a broken record but the Vikings are a very talented team that are seriously under performing.
Maybe a loss going into the bye will mean a new head coach?
I also picked again in the modern era draft:
Round 4
Patrick Willis, MLB
Am I crazy for drafting a guy who is only in his second professional season in the fourth round? Probably, but I'm still very confident in this pick. Frankly I think there is a lack of truely dynamic players at this position and I'm sure there is no one else available that can do all the things at MLB that he can.
Like my last pick, Kearse, Willis burst onto the NFL scene like maybe no one else has at his position. Like The Freak, Willis is an absolutely ridiculous athlete. At the NFL combine P-Will posted a 4.51 in the 40-yard dash, benched 225 22 times and had a 35 inch vertical. Considered by most the obvious first LB in the draft at this point, he wasn't happy with those results. A few weeks later Willis shocked NFL scouts by running a 4.37 40, and then doing it again. At 6-1, 240 P-Will is a brick wall who can move like an elite halfback.
At the beginning of last season (week 2) MDS over at FO did an "every play counts" article on the 49ers new stud MLB. His review was that everything he'd heard about Patrick was true, amazing athlete, made plays all over the field, etc. but like most young line-backers, needed to learn how to avoid blockers better.
By the end of a season where Willis was coached by MLB legend Mike Singletary, he was so improved in the one area MDS had a complaint (avoiding blockers) that he named him Football Outsiders 2007 Every Play Counts MLB of the year:
In his one full season in the NFL Patrick Willis was elected to the Pro Bowl, named first team All-Pro, won defensive rookie of the year and was named best MLB by Football Outsiders in their "2007 Every Play Counts All-Pro Team." He lead the NFL in total tackles (174) which is also the most any player has had in a season in this decade (harder to find pre-2000s tackling stats). He also lead the league in solo tackles with 135, also a record for the 00s and like his total tackle number was about 30 more than anyone else in the NFL in 2007.
Patrick Willis is an insane athlete that excels in all areas of his position. He can fight through a block to make the tackle, he not only hits hard but wraps up, he is great in coverage and flies around making tackles from sideline to sideline. He is also already good at avoiding being blocked on up-the-middle runs, a common complaint against speedy MLBs that you still even hear about great veterans like Urlacher. With him at MLB I will have a lot of options in terms of blitzing my OLBs and leaving him in coverage or to clean up if the other team runs. I'll be taking him at his current age of 23.
2007:
174 tackles (135 solo), 4 sacks, 2ff, 5pd
2008 (through week 6):
54 tackles (44 solo), 1 sick 82 yard int returned for TD, 1 sack, 5pd
Team SL__72
QB Steve Young
RG Will Shields
DE Jevon Kearse
MLB Patrick Willis
Posted bySL__72 at 4:34 PM 4 comments
Draft, signings
Friday, October 17, 2008
So Nappy is back, as is Dontarrious...
Both, in my opinion, represent a better option at starting MLB than Herron. Obviously it looks like Harris is the favorite to fill that role but its nice to have Thomas back anyway. During his time here he was a competent backup at all three LB roles and in my opinion might have been the team's best LB at pass coverage, although this year Leber has impressed me some. Maybe Thomas could also help strengthen the Vikings coverage on special teams? They looked OK vs. Detroit but they have definitely been a weak spot to this point in the season.
Thats all I have for now on the Vikings, hoping to do a full preview tomorrow as this week's game is pretty big.
Round #3, Pick 91 overall
"Nicknamed "The Freak" by teammates while at the University of Florida for his combination of power, quickness and intensity, Kearse was clocked at 4.43 seconds in the 40-yard dash, posted a 40-inch vertical jump and possesses an 86-inch wingspan."
I'm taking Kearse at age 23, as a rookie that is. Few rookies have ever had an impact on the league like Kearse. In his rookie year he had 14.5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 8 forced fumbles and 9 passes deflected. He also had a total of 57 tackles. He recovered one of those forced fumbles and returned it for a TD. In his first playoff game, vs. the Bills, Kearse had 2 more sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a safety. The Titans ended up advancing to the SB before finally coming up a few inches short vs. the Rams.
That year Kearse would win DROY, get second in the DPOY voting, went to the pro-bowl and was a first team all-pro.
In his second season he would again be the runner up for DPOY and went to his 2nd pro-bowl.
In his third season he switched to RDE and again went to the pro bowl.
In his fourth season, 2002, Kearse fractured a bone in his foot and missed almost the whole year. He was never quite the same after that but everyone who saw him play those first three years undoubtedly still refers to him as "The Freak." still today.
Team SL__72
QB Steve Young
RG Will Shields
LDE Jevon Kearse
Posted bySL__72 at 12:38 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bon Iver, Dontarrious Thomas, Flume, Jevon Kearse, Napoleon Harris, NFL Modern Era Draft
Vikings, Draft, Gophers,
Monday, October 13, 2008
I didn't write a post-game review of the Saints game because it was ugly. I didn't write a preview for the Lions game because I didn't think it deserved one. I'm also busy and lazy.
I can't skip this one. Sunday was the Vikings second win in as many games. It was probably the ugliest win I've ever seen. One fluke (I call it fluke because it is the only one we've had this year) long TD catch and run, a stupid safety and a number of blown calls are what it takes to beat the Lions now? At home no less? No matter which way you cut it the Lions are one of the three worst teams in the NFL.
At least they solidly outplayed them this time. If they can just cut down the fumbles (inexcusable) and league worst special teams coverage (even moreso) there could still be some hope.
I'd like to thank Tim Brewster, Erik Decker, Willie Van De Steeg and the rest of the Gophers football team for reminding me what it feels like to cheer on a team as they actually exceed my expectations! And congrats to Van De Steeg on winning a much deserved national defensive player of the week award.
Finally, I just made my second pick in the modern era NFL draft. I had trouble initially zeroing in on a few names, but I was eventually very confident in the guy I selected. My writeup on the pick is below and I've also added some links over on the left to the pick thread, the discussion thread and a spreadsheet with updated results.
Round #2, Pick #59: Will Shields, RG
I wouldn't have guessed that my second overall pick would be a RG, but this feels like a lot of value for the end of the second round. With 11 offensive linemen off the board I'm happy to be able to get the guy who, in my opinion, is the greatest right guard of the era.
Shields was drafted by the Chiefs in the third round of the draft in 1993. He stepped into his role as RG part way through his first game with the Chiefs and never left. He went on to start the next 223 regular season games for them before retiring in 2007.
In his 14 year career he went to 12 pro-bowls and was named all-pro 9 times (first team twice). In 2003 he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award for his work with the Will to Succeed foundation. In 11 of Shields 14 seasons his blocking helped earn a pro-bowl appearance for the Chiefs' running back. One of the other three seasons was 2004 when Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Derrick Blaylock ran for a combined 2012 yards rushing and the Chiefs had the #1 offense in the NFL.
Another thing Shields was known for was avoiding penalties. I couldn't find a better reference, but according to this ESPN article, it appears he was only flagged twice (total) over the coarse of his last 3 (I think?) seasons.
Adding that up:
Great blocker
+ never missed a game
+ maintained dominance
+ rarely committed penalties
+ great role model off the field
= my 2nd round selection
I'm choosing Shields at age 31 (2002). Why? Well I don't think it matters too much as long as it is before he was 34 or so. Dr Z named him to his all-pro team (or whatever he calls it) in 2004, his age 33 season. I guess I like that year because the Chiefs run-game was particularly good and he was named first-team all-pro.
Team SL__72
QB: Steve Young
OG: Will Shields
TV On The Radio came out with a new CD a couple of weeks ago and it is very good. Just like their last two CDs were. This song (which you may have heard on Entourage and which I probably have posted before) made me start listening to them and to this day is one of my favorites:
And one off their new CD:
TV On The Radio:
Posted bySL__72 at 11:46 PM 2 comments
Labels: Minnesota Gophers, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Modern Era Draft, TV On The Radio
Weak, I know.
Monday, October 6, 2008
I started writing up a better preview but got seriously sidetracked by the whole modern era draft thing last night. I think the Vikings are a slightly better team. I think McKinnie coming back probably more than offsets losing EJ, especially against the Saints.
The Saints are bad at running the football, period. They are ranked last in the NFL in power rushing and have been stuffed on a higher percentage of their runs than any other team.
On defense the Saints rely on their good pass rushing DEs to help make up for a sub-par secondary so McKinnie being back could be huge.
Vegas has the Saints as about three point favorites. FO has the Vikings as 1-2 point favorites on a neutral field, and that is without taking into account McKinnie's return. This should be a very good matchup. I think things could get really interesting in Winter Park if the Vikings blow another close game to go 1-4.
Posted bySL__72 at 6:51 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bryant McKinnie, EJ Henderson, Minnesota Vikings, Week 5 Preview
NFL Modern Era Draft
I'm taking part in a fantasy draft of sorts over at 2+2. Basically 32 teams are drafting and you try to make the best team possible using only players from 1985 to the present. I just made my first pick, #6 overall. 1-5 went as follows:
1. LT
2. Peyton Manning
3. Tom Brady
4. LdT...?
5. Joe Montana
Here is my pick:
Round 1, Pick 6
Steve Young, QB
I really want to go with a QB considering my next pick isn't until like 58...
His reign at the top may have been shorter lived than many of the other great QBs who will be selected in this draft but it compares favorably to any of them in terms of brilliance. Two-time league MVP, Super Bowl MVP, highest ever career passer rating, etc.
The thing that really separates Young from the other QB options remaining for me is his scrambling ability. He ran for over 400 yards in a season 5 times in his 4149 career rushing yards is still 2nd all-time for a QB behind only Randall Cunningham. He also holds the record for career rushing TDs by a QB with 43.
Young's 6.8 adjusted net yards per attempt during his 49er years is just ridiculous. For comparison, Montana's as a Niner was 6.2, Manning's career ANY/A is 6.5...
He has three seasons in the top 10 all-time for ANY/A and no other QB has more than one.
Like Nath with Montana I am picking Young at 33. In 1994 he passed for 3969 yards, 35 TDs, 10 Int, 8.6Y/A, 7.5 ANY/A... he won the league MVP and had one of the greatest SB games of all-time passing for 350 yards, a SB record 6 TDs and also lead the game with 49 yards rushing.
You can follow along and read people's picks here if you are interested. All discussion is here.
Posted bySL__72 at 12:40 AM 0 comments
Labels: NFL Modern Era Draft, Steve Young
My Morning Jacket
Friday, October 3, 2008
I saw My Morning Jacket last night at the Orpheum Theatre last night. It was, predictably, an amazing show. The only downside was that they played Highly Suspicious as the third song of their encore. They followed it up with Anytime and One Big Holiday though, so it was ok.
It was also a much different venue then any of the other times I've seen them. The first was in 2003 (I think) at the Ascot room in the Quest.
This is some other band playing there, not a great photo but its the best I could find and gets the point across. It is the secondary stage/room at a relatively small club. I'd guess there was probably 50 people there that night. It was awesome.
The next time I saw them was at the main stage at the Quest.
A little bigger, probably a couple hundred people. This was on their "Z" album tour. It was a good show but easily the weakest of the 4 that I've seen... probably a combination of it being an album tour for their first really popular album, a new(ish) lineup and me wanting to hear more of their older songs, not just everything off Z.
The next time was at Lollapalooza in 2006. It was easily my favorite show of the festival even though they were one of the only bands I saw that weekend who I'd seen before. They were also one of the most popular "daytime" shows of the weekend. I skipped (or listened from a distance anyway) Iron and Wine to get a good spot and it was definitely worth it. Video from that performance:
The guy who filmed that video must have been standing very near me.
During that show Jim James told a really cool story about how he went to the very first Lollapalooza in '91 and absolutely loved it. He said that on the way home all he could think about was how much fun it would be to one day play at Lollapalooza and that as it turned out, it was even more fun then he'd imagined. Or something like that.
This is the Orpheum:
My Morning Jacket was one of the bands that I started listening to when I got to college in 2001 and finally came to the conclusion that there existed music, other than traditional rock and rap, that was worth my while. Seeing them again made me think about how they played a big role in putting me on a path to having much broader (and imo, better) musical tastes. And also that I've kind of been able to watch them grow up as a band. And how cool it is that I still like them every bit as much now as I did in 2002.
If you have a chance to see them and haven't, definitely do it. They are one of the best live bands I've seen... and I've seen a ton.
To end this post, the two songs they ended their show with:
Posted bySL__72 at 9:30 PM 0 comments
Labels: Anytime, My Morning Jacket, One Big Holiday