Happy New Year!
Friday, February 29, 2008

The NFL new year started off with a bang last night. I'm only going to be posting about things from a Vikings' standpoint.

Madieu Williams, we gottem!
Thomas Tapeh, we gottem!

Madieu was drafted by the Bengals in the 2nd round of the draft out of Maryland where he was a teammate of EJ "Why didn't they give me dreads?" Henderson. In his rookie season he stepped right into the starting FS spot for the Bengals and went on to record over 100 tackles as well as 3 picks. He's missed some time since then but has continued to be a solid player when healthy. He certainly was the top FA player available at his position and it was a position the Vikings were lacking at.

If you are from Minnesota, you probably know all you need to know about Tapeh.

I like that the Vikings continued their trend of jumping on the guys they really want and making sure they get them. I really like both of these signings.


Justin Smith and Bernard Berrian are the other players the Vikings are rumored to be looking into. Berrian has been in town for most of the day and while it was rumored that he was going to head out to Oakland, it sounds like hes still here. The rumored numbers of $18m guaranteed and $8m/year sound a little high, but WR is obviously a huge need for the Vikings and he would definitely be a big upgrade there.

Justin Smith scares me even more. He is a very solid all around player but I'm not sure he is exactly what the Vikings need. He is a big name DE who has never really done much from a pass rush standpoint. I guess with Robison and Edwards to rush and Udeze's having cancer they must want to add another big DE.

One of the reason's I'm not so keen on paying that much for Berrian right away is that there are actually quite a few WR options available right now. Although its nothing more then a pipe dream, Moss is on the market. Javon Walker was cut by Denver. The word is that Fitz is on the block... and don't forget about Sidney Rice.

The next few days should continue to be really interesting... filled with a lot of Sports Center and refreshing PFT.

Oh, and Santana today: 2ip, 4h, 3er. Juan Gonzalez!!! hit a 3-run jack off of him. Yeah, I know it doesn't matter, but I thought it was hilarious.

I'll try and give initial reactions to more signings as they come and take an in depth look at whoever we've added and lost sometime next week.

Maybe my favorite rap song ever:

Posted bySL__72 at 6:17 PM 0 comments  

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Wow, its been a whole week
Thursday, February 21, 2008

I think three day weekends might cut down on my number of posts. I've been working on some Twins season preview type stuff but its taking longer then I expected. Maybe I'll post it tonight though.

For now, a few other notes:

Check out the new Twins blog over at the Pioneer Press. After only week it is already pretty much my favorite read.

And as a preview of the preview, who do you think the Twins most valuable position players are coming into this season? I calculated each players value, in WAR, assuming they played full-time at their given position and came up with the following:

1. Mauer, C
2. Morneau, 1B
3. Everett, SS
4. Redmond, C

Yes, a guy with a career OPS of .650 (in the NL no less) projects as the third most valuable player on the team and our backup catcher is 4th. Sigh... Gomez came out surprisingly high, mostly due to being a + defender at a premium position (like Redmond and Everett).

I may have posted this before, I don't remember, but this Bill James article about Jeter and Everett is a must read. It gives you a great introduction to some advanced fielding metrics as well as a good preview of what we can expect from Everett this season. Also, look out for the random Matsui insult.

The deadline for NFL teams to use their Franchise tag is today at 4pm EST.

As of this posting, the following players have been franchised:

Cardinals - Karlos Dansby
Ravens - Terrell Suggs (Some dispute here over what position he should be franchised as)
Panthers - Jordan Gross
Bengals - Stacy Andrews
Cowboys - Ken Hamlin
Packers - Corey Williams
Colts - Dallas Clark (actually signed a 6 year extension now)
Chiefs - Jared Allen
Raiders - Nnamdi Asomugha
Eagles - L.J. Smith
Seahawks - Marcus Trufant
Titans - Albert Haynesworth

There is some speculation that the Pats will use their tag on Moss, so that could be an interesting update within the next 2 hours...

Oh, and a song (limited by the fact I am missing my headphones):

Vampire Weekend - Oxford Comma



Update: No tag for Moss!

Posted bySL__72 at 11:49 AM 2 comments  

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Its Friday!
Thursday, February 14, 2008

Not really, but today is the first of hopefully many Thursdays that lead into a three day weekend for me. This week I started working 4 (late) 10s and I think I love it. I only have a few sports related things to talk about so I'm going to start something new, a song of the week. Wow, a whole song per week, I don't know if I'll be able to keep up. Actually I'm thinking of making it a song per post, but since during this boringass period of the sports year that is almost the same thing, I'll call it song of the week for now.

On to the sports stuffs:

First, I just mentioned it in the last paragraph, but I think this is the worst week of the sports year. Next week the NFL combine starts and that leads right into the rest of the NFL offseason schedule as well as Spring Training for baseball (yes, it's really less then two weeks away!). Yeah, hockey and basketball are in the middle of their seasons, but there is still a ways to go before their (almost as long as the regular season) playoffs. Plus I don't even follow the NBA at all.

I'm really sick of hearing about PEDs. Why oh why is congress interrogating Roger Clemens? Why do they care when/if he or his wife used HGH? In my opinion wasting their time and our money on this is far worse then Clemens using steroids, HGH AND doing lines between innings. There wasn't testing then, there is testing now... what more do you want to come of this? At least when California went after Bonds it was under the guise of a perjury charge.

Ouch, I just ripped a bunch of skin off of my upper lip. No good.

Today the Miami Dolphins cut Zach Thomas. This reminds me a lot of the Broncos cutting Adrian Wilson last year. I can't say this trend is helping the NFL's PR problem with respect to their treatment of ex-players. As PFT joked, I'm sure Thomas will be playing for the Pats next year anyway.

Thomas has been a beast for the Dolphins since they drafted him in 96 and he stepped right into the role he would hold for the next decade plus, starting MLB and tackling machine! That year he won the AFC DROY and he has been to 7 pro bowls and been named to 7 all-pro teams since then. Despite being only 5-11 and less then 230 pounds, if his career ended today he would have to go down as one of the all-time great MLBs. I know it isn't an official stat, but according to Wikipedia he has the 2nd most career tackles of anyone in league history. First has to be Seau, right?

Since spring training is right around the corner, was there a better move made this off-season then the Brewers signing Mike Cameron? First, they certainly inked him to a below market contract. Second, they are replacing a bad defensive CF (Hall) with a good one. Third, they are replacing an absolutely awful defensive 3b (Braun) with one who should easily be above average (Hall). Fourth they move a great hitter (Braun) to a position where he should be more comfortable. Braun's fielding % last season was .895! Fielding % is a seriously flawed way to evaluate a player's fielding and as such you'll probably never see me use it to evaluate a player's fielding again, but any time it starts with an 8... thats a really bad sign.

Finally they replaced the one bat they lost in the lineup (Jenkins) with a better one (Cameron). Two years ago the Brewers were easily one of the least interesting teams in baseball. Now, I really like them. Fielder, Braun and Hart are going to make one formidable middle of the order and they will be surrounded by lots of other solid hitters.

Anyway, I'm giving that transaction of the off-season. Signing Livan Hernandez to help make Boof less conscious about his weight gets a close second obv.

And finally, the long awaited (if you read this whole post anyway) first track of the week:

Re-Up Gang - 20k Money Making Brothers On The Corner

Off of Volume 3 of their We Got It 4 Cheap mix-tape series. I figured I'd start with this song because it reflects how hood I am, I mean is. That, or because its a good song off of a free album:
Download it here.

Oh, and if you like the CD, check out Vol. 2 which you can get at www.clintonsparks.com. Its even better.

Posted bySL__72 at 3:30 PM 1 comments  

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"Small" Budget Team Lighting Money on Fire!
Tuesday, February 12, 2008

I like Justin Morneau. I think the extension the Twins gave him was unnecessarily long and too big, but at least he is a decent player and is popular amongst fans. Same with Cuddyer.

Signing Craig Monroe to a deal worth almost $4m was definitely worse. As AG pointed out yesterday, there were seven FAs signed this offseason who were better for this role and COMBINED they are getting payed less then Monroe next season.

Now the Twins have signed Livan Hernandez to a deal that is reportedly worth somewhere between $5 and $6 million dollars and could be worth as much as $7m if some incentives are reached, which they almost certainly won't be. I'm sure the Twins think this will bring stability to their rotation, that like Silva before him he will be able to eat up a bunch of innings. It is far more likely that they are now paying a 33 year old washed up pitcher $5m+ to make the team worse.

Hare are the starting pitchers in the Twins organization (from best to worst) that PECOTA sees as being better then Livan next year:

Fransisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey
Scott Baker
Boof Bonser
Glen Perkins
Bobby Korecky
Kevin Mulvey
Jose Mijares (I know he's still hurt)
Anthony Swarzak

The Orioles chose to pay $.5m to buy out Kris Benson's $7.5m option for next year. The Royals bought out Odalis Perez's $9m option for $1.5m. Kyle Lohse was paid $4.2m last year. Josh Fogg was paid $3.7m last year. David Wells was paid $3m last year. Victor Zambrano was paid $0.5m last year. Do you know what all these pitchers have in common? They are all free agent starting pitchers who project as better pitchers then Livan Hernandez at this point. I don't mind that the Twins want to give their young rotation some veteran help. I just don't like that they picked a terrible pitcher and overpaid him because he has the reputation of being an "innings-eater!" Hell, Jeff Weaver's projection for next season looks better then Livan's.

Hernandez's xFIP the last three seasons:
2005: 4.56
2006: 5.38
2007: 5.62

And that is in the National League! Pitching against pitchers and generally weaker hitters! Ugh.

Posted bySL__72 at 12:43 PM 2 comments  

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The Giants Win The Pennant!
Wednesday, February 6, 2008

I meant to post this last night but ended up working from like 11pm till well after 3am so I didn't feel like finishing it up before going to bed...

I wonder how it feels to beat the best football team ever... I bet it feels pretty good. My MVP goes to O, Tuck and Strahan for having some of the best defensive performances I've ever seen. For three quarters they completely dominated what may have been the best offense of all time. Antonio Pierce is a beast too.

I think I can also finally quit hating on the Patriots. With the possible exception of Belichick they handled the loss just about as well as could possibly be expected. This team had the chance to do something really special. They have to know how lucky they were to make it to 18-0 and that there is almost no chance of it happening again, yet after they narrowly missed getting #19 they all held their heads up and complimented the Giants for playing a good game.

Since I've been promising to post some more info on the Twins 4 new players and completely failing to deliver, here goes:

Carlos Gomez:
6-4, 195, 22yo, bats and throws right.

Gomez has been rushed through the Mets system and as a result his game, specifically his hitting, isn't as refined as you would like to see it at this point. He has blazing speed, a great arm and good defensive instincts. He might be able to step in and be one of the better defensive CF in the MLB today. I think the Twins, eager to show that they got some talent in return for Santana are going to want to give him a chance to play right away and I'm worried that will stunt his growth. His combination of size, athleticism and his swing give some hope that he could develop some power, but that remains to be seen and his plate discipline is pretty poor too.

Offensively, right now I think Gomez is a lot like Willy Taveras but I think his upside is pretty much Carl Crawford. I'd like to see him start the year off in Rochester as he obviously has some work to do and I think it'd significantly increase the chances of him reaching that potential.

Here are a couple of YouTube videos of him. The first gives you a decent shot of his swing and then him showcasing his speed. The second gives you a better idea of what his swing looks like, but I wish I could find a video of him taking BP.






Deolis Guerra:

6-5, 200, 19yo RHP.

Guerra signed with the Mets as a 16 year old. At 17 he made 17 starts in low-A ball with impressive results. At 18 he moved to high-A and had similar results, maintaining his K-rate and improving his control a little. He has a good fastball which he controls well, that reportedly sits in the 92-93 range and may touch 95+. As he was only 18 those numbers could go up a bit as he continues to mature. He has a very good changeup which is extremely rare for someone this age. He is also developing a curveball that is starting to come around although it could still use some work. I haven't been able to find any video on him but I did find the following in a forum post:
"He has a somewhat minimal windup/delivery and good, repeatable mechanics."
I'd expect Guerra to start back in A-ball this season. Teenagers are usually almost impossible to project. Guerra certain has front of the rotation potential but at the same time there is definitely a non-zero chance that he never reaches the MLB.

Kevin Mulvey
6-1, 170, RHP, 23yo

2007: 22, AA Binghamton, BB/PA: 6.7% K/PA: 17.2% BABIP: .305 GB: 55% HR/PA: 2% FIP: 3.16

Mulvey has a heavy, sinking fastball in the low 90s that he does a good job of locating. Baseball America ranked his slider the best in the Mets’ system but it doesn’t sound like a real strikeout pitch. He relies more on getting ground balls and keeping the ball in the park. His 55% GB number is pretty good and he obviously did a great job last year of keeping the ball in the park. As a GB type pitcher it’d be nice to see him work on his control a little more/give up less walks which might mean spending most of 2008 in AAA.

Philip Humber
6-4, 210, RHP, 25yo

Humber is a big strong righty who spent the season in AAA last year after missing all of 2006 to a Tommy John surgery. He has a fastball that sits in the low 90s and has a bit of a tailing action. He has a plus, 12-6 curve that Baseball America ranked as the best in the Mets’ system. He also has a solid changeup that supposedly was even better last year then before his surgery. His strikeout and walk numbers weren’t as good last season as they were before his surgery but that could have as much to do with him pitching at a higher level as the procedure itself. He can control all of his pitches well but I’ve read a few places that he has some trouble with his focus on the mound, occasionally getting a little over-eager.

While Humber is a little more advanced in his development, his ceiling probably isn’t as high as Mulvey’s. I’d expect them both to compete for a back of the rotation spot in training camp this season. PECOTA likes Mulvey a lot more then Humber going into this season, but more traditional projection systems have them about equal. PECOTA sees Mulvey as a 5th/6th type starter today, where it basically thinks Humber isn't ready yet. CHONE and Marcel both have both pitchers projected as decent 5th starters right now.





I’ll probably take a closer look at what the Twins roster would/could/should look like in my next post as I’ve decided to put off writing about football anymore until we get a little closer to free agency…

Posted bySL__72 at 2:11 PM 2 comments  

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