Week 1 Preview
Friday, September 5, 2008
Vikings @ Packers
In their recently posted 2008 DVOA Projections Football Outsiders had both of these team's ranked amongst the best in the NFL. Here are their top 5 teams:
Team: DVOA
NE: 40%
Phi: 32.3%
GB: 31.5%
SD: 25.5%
Min: 22.5%
Their projection system thinks both teams will be very solid across the board. Here is the breakdown:
Vikings offense (11.6%, 7th) vs. Packers defense (-17.5%, 2nd)
The Vikings offense's weighted DVOA at the end of last season was 7.4% so they see them as slightly improved this season which shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Green Bay finished last season with an almost exactly average defensive DVOA so FO thinks they will be much better this season.
Going into this game I don't think either of these squads is as good as their projection. I don't see the giant improvement in the Packers' defense and on top of that they are pretty beat up right now. Hawk, KGB, Bigby and his backup Peprah are all listed on the Packers injury report. I think Hawk, KGB and Bigby will all play but KGB especially won't be at full speed which is pretty key.
As for the Vikings offense, I worry about Tarvaris' lack of preseason snaps and the health of his knee. I'm also really worried about Artis Hicks starting at LT. I've never been impressed with Hicks at RG so it seems like he may be a liability covering Tarvaris' backside.
Overall I think this should be a pretty even matchup. The Vikings should be able to run some but probably aren't going to have a field day on the ground against the Packers' very strong front 7. To be successful they will have to be able to take advantage of GB's weak secondary. If Hicks can hold his own and Tarvaris can make some throws they should have a good day. Otherwise they probably won't.
Packers offense (11.6%, 8th) vs. Vikings defense (-8.6%, 7th)
The projections have this as a pretty even matchup but I expect it to actually favor the Vikings by quite a bit. The Packers' line has been in the top 5 in pass blocking for the last few years. They haven't been nearly as good at opening up holes for the running game. Last season they ranked only 26th in FO's adjusted line yards metric.
The thing to consider when evaluating the Packers' offensive line is that Brett Favre has been their QB for... well, ever. One of the things that made (makes?) Brett Favre such a great QB that you don't hear talked about too much is his ability to avoid taking sacks (other than single-season record setting ones anyway). Over the last 3 years Brett has only been sacked about once per 30 pass attempts. His career rate is about once per 20 attempts. In limited playtime at the NFL level Rodgers has been sacked about once per 6.5 attempts. In the preseason he was sacked 7 times and had 54 attempts which is about the same rate. That is an alarming difference.
The Packers' OL is also pretty beat up coming into this game. Word is that starting center Scott Wells won't be playing and RG Jason Spitz will be taking his place. Spitz's backup at RG, Josh Sitton, is out so I believe their backup LG, Allen Barbre, should be starting at RG. Chad Clifton is also a little banged up and hasn't been fully participating in practice.
I also think the Vikings' defense is better than FO's projection. A lot of the writers there agree. Their front 7 are among the league's very best, Sharper and Toine are both still near the top at their positions and they are deep at CB. My biggest concern is that rookie Tyrell Johnson is starting next to Sharper at safety and with Boulware on the IR and Madieu obviously unable to play, their depth at that position is basically nonexistent.
I expect the Vikings defensive line to dominate the Packers up front. I also expect them to bring a lot of blitzes vs. Rodgers given his apparent inability to avoid the rush and because its his first NFL start and in prime time no less. The Packers definitely have some talent on offense, but I expect them to be outmatched on Monday.
Vikings special teams (2.3%, 7th) vs. Packers special teams (2.4%, 6).
Both teams have solid but not dominant special teams. I don't expect them to play a huge role in this game but if they do it could easily be the difference in an otherwise close matchup.
Vegas likes the Packers in this one. FO's 2008 projections definitely agree. I don't. I think the Vikings are the better team. If I were a betting man, er, a sports betting man, my money would be on the Vikings to cover at +2.5.
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Posted bySL__72 at 2:32 PM
Labels: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Week 1 Preview
Can we get an article about how completely incompetent our playcalling has been? Or an article explaining why brad childress still has a job? Or an article about how depressing it is to follow professional minnesota sports? Or any article about how a team with adrian peterson as the starting runningback has only one offensive td? Any of these will suffice.
I plan on addressing all of that before I go to New York tomorrow.
Except the part about Childress still having a job. No idea on that one.