How did we get here?
Thursday, August 28, 2008
The beginning of the NFL season is only about a week and a half away and I can't wait. What brings me back though is the fact that the Twins are in the middle of what is shaping up to be a really fun pennant race.
Before the season started common knowledge had the Twins finishing either fourth or fifth in the Central this season. Even the most optimistic projections (from non-homers anyway) had them finishing behind Cleveland and Detroit. Well, the Tigers fell on their face coming out of the gate and the Indians' season has pretty much been a disaster. That is except for having the most deserving candidates for both the MVP and the Cy Young... but I'm getting off track.
With the Twins designating Mike Lamb for assignment this week there has been a lot of talk about how poorly the Twins offseason moves have all worked out. Aaron Gleeman posted a "progress report" for Bill Smith that was created by Michael Moen that doesn't even have room for all the disasters! (he left off Craig Monroe)
Anyway, despite all that, the Twins are still 2nd in the division. Here is why:
#1 Luck. Plain and simple, the Twins' third order winning percentage is .510. There actual winning percentage is .560. They should probably be about 1 game over .500 right now, not 16. No amount of guts, intangibles, "clutchness," etc. can account for that difference. Only random variation can... and I'm happy it is on our side.
#2 Pitching. Specifically:
Scott Baker: 134ip, 3.75RA
Kevin Slowey: 128ip, 3.81RA
Glen Perkins: 132ip, 4.10RA
Francisco Liriano: 40ip, 4.50RA
Nick Blackburn 164ip, 4.53RA
and of coarse
Joe Nathan: 57ip, 1.11RA, 4.28 WPA!
#3 The minor league system making up for a whole new group of failed veteran signings.
Buscher has been a nice replacement for Lamb. Give him a platoon partner and you are way better of then with Lamb ever could have been.
Casilla has played very well in the middle infield.
Ruiz has done well in the 16 games since he was called up.
And most importantly: Denard Span. The guy who spent the last 3 or 4 seasons reading about how much of a failure he is on Twins blogs. And frankly, they were right to complain. After being picked by the Twins in the first round of the amateur draft in 2002 Span spent the next four years showing little ability to get on base and almost no power.
In spring training this season Span was a man on a mission. Despite the fact that the key piece in the Santana trade played the same position as him Span was telling anyone who would listen that he was ready to take over in his role as the Twins' CF of the future. 5 months later it appears, to everyone's surprise but his, that he was right.
In 40 games and 180 some odd plate appearances in Rochester this season Span posted an OPS of .915, about 170 points better than his previous best season at any level. What struck me most about his performance was the dramatic increase in both his isolated walk and power numbers. Those numbers often tell the truth when things like batting average are lying to you.
Since being called up Span has continued to play at the same level, walking almost as much as he strikes out and posting an IsoP of about .140. His OPS+ is 127 and if anything, he is running a few points cold on balls in play.
Another way of looking at how well he has played. Expand his performance to a full year and put him in CF (where he is still surely a + defender) and he is firmly in the Hamilton/Beltran level of value with only Granderson and Sizemore definitely being ahead of him. For a guy who'd all but been written off as a 4th/5th OF type, that's amazing.
I can't wait to see what the Twins decide to do with their overcrowded outfield this off season. Maybe they'll finally give Gomez the time in AAA he needs to learn how to hit? Doubtful, but it'd be cool.
I'm way behind on posting music due to a recent rush of good CDs being released, or at least my finding them, combined with not posting at all. Here is what I was listening to while writing (and not editing) this post:
Posted bySL__72 at 1:09 AM
Labels: Denard Span, Minnesota Twins, My Sunken Treasure, The Duke Spirit