Who is the best QB?
Thursday, March 6, 2008
The other day I found myself wishing that pro-football-reference.com did era adjustments for their QB rate stats. Since they don't, I decided to do some myself. I calculated an era adjusted, adjusted yards per attempt and adjusted net yards per attempt for the top five QBs (in my mind) of the passing era. I neutralized all of their stats so they are the equivalent of playing in 2007.
Here is how it came out, ranked by career era-neutral, adjusted net yards per attempt. I also listed a neutralized adjusted yards per attempt, in case you don't think its fair to penalize QBs for sack yards. (note: didn't include Montana's Chief days)
1. Steve Young ANY/A: 6.91 AY/A: 7.78
2. Dan Marino ANY/A: 6.745 AY/A: 6.85
3. Peyton Manning ANY/A: 6.743 AY/A: 7.12
4. Joe Montana ANY/A: 6.62 AY/A: 7.62
5. Tom Brady ANY/A: 6.18 AY/A: 6.8
Era adjusted, Young was by far the best passer, with Montana coming in 2nd. Marino and Manning both benefit by doing a much better job then the rest in not losing many yards to sacks. Brady is way behind in terms of career passing success.
Romo, after less then two seasons, compares quite well to the above list. His would be something like; ANY/A: 6.60 AY/A: 7.3.
If you think I missed someone and you want me to era-adjust them for comparison, let me know... only takes me a minute or two now...
Posted bySL__72 at 9:52 PM
Labels: All-time best, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Steve Young, Tom Brady, Tony Romo
Where do you think Brett Favre falls on the list of best QBs of all time? Also, by adjusting it to current standards, are you basically just looking at how many more passes/game are thrown by the average qb, along with taking out sack yards? It would also be cool to look at something like projected TDs, INTs, etc. But those are stats that are probably difficult to predict. In my mind, Favre is like the 5th or 6th best QB of all time, behind the likes of Montana, Elway, Unitas, Marino, then probably Favre or maybe Young. It's hard to say, because I want to be biased because I hate the packers, but 442 TDS? Are you serious? I mean if Favre wins one more SB he's probably top 3 right? He was better than Elway at basically everything besides super bowls. It's hard to put Marino in front of him either, except for I would argue Favre had better talent surrounding him on the Pack. BTW, is it too early to start including Manning on the GOAT lists? 306 Tds and he's 31. He's gunna be at 400 in three years, plus he has pretty much a 2:1 TD/INT ratio. Dude is a stud.
The short answer is that I don't think he is top 5, but is easily top 10. I don't put much credence in things like super bowls won when judging a QB. People think Peyton and Marino were chokers and Brady and Montana are clutch... the biggest difference? Brady and Montana played with a bunch of great defenses and Manning and Marino played with bad ones.
I was adjusting specifically the stats I showed to the league average over the coarse of their career.
So like Peyton's AY/A is 7.0, the league average in '07 is 5.4 and the league average over his career is like 5.3, so his adjusted is 7*5.4/5.3. Basically I was just calculating the league average AY/A and ANY/A for each guy over the coarse of their whole career.
Anyway, I think in the passing era Young, Montana, Marino and Manning stand alone at the top. Favre is in the second tier, with imo, Elway, Kelly, Fouts, Staubach and probably Brady.
Some guys like Unitas are certainly great, but my method of era-adjusting wouldn't be accurate enough (I don't think) for guys back then...
I think Peyton is certainly the best QB I've gotten to watch play a significant amount. I'd be surprised if he doesn't break just about every record Favre holds, including the consecutive starts record. Hes already at 160 regular season, 174 including playoffs. He has missed 1! play in his career due to injury. Check out this quote about Manning:
Peyton Manning is pretty damn tough. He has missed one play to injury in his career.
In 2001 against Miami he took a dirty hit to the head and broke his jaw. Backup Mark Rypien came in for one play, fumbled the snap and cost the Colts the game. Manning came back in on the next possession and hasn't left a game due to injury since.
Next I think I'm going to do this same study over these guys' 5-year peak stretch. I'll probably include some of the other, older QBs like Staubach, Fouts, etc.
Haha that is absolutely hilarious about Manning. That brings up the great question, whose a better QB...Peyton Manning when he has a severe concussion, a separated shoulder, broken ribs, a sprained ankle, and a hip pointer, or jim sorgi? I don't know, at that point it might be a judgment call. That is incredible about his longevity. Obviously avoiding injury is a skill. Manning benefits because he is so damn smart, he usually gets the ball out to the open receiver before the defense can get there. Favre had a similar style, except he isn't quite as smart as manning (which is why he holds the INT record). I think the argument for Favre's greatness was his longevity and consistency. Of course, we also saw that Favre was quite average when he wasn't surrounded by talented receivers (I hate when packer fans argue he never had any good receivers: Sharpe, Brooks, Freeman, Driver, Jennings, Walker, Chumera, Franks, Shroeder) not to mention the his offensive line thru the 90s, the formidable running game (levens, bennett, green, grant this year), and the amazing defense (especially during their SB in '96).