Twins Preview, WAR Style!
Thursday, March 13, 2008
WAR is Wins Above Replacement… not exactly a new idea. This post isn’t a new idea either, it was inspired by a similar post over on the USS Mariner a few weeks ago. Another blogger, Colin Wyers, posted a Cubs version on his blog a few days later and in the process of which came up with a very useful little calculator with which to calculate (which you can find here) a player’s projected value measured in WAR.
Starting with the position players:
The weighted on base average projection comes from the CHONE projections I always use. The defensive projections were also more or less were taken straight from Sean Smith too, although there were a few adjustments made. FA value is what the projected performance would be worth on the open market (in millions of dollars) and Arb/FA value is adjusted to account for service time (what they player should get through arbitration). The "Diff" value is the difference between their actual salary and their Arb/FA value and "Diff_FA" is the difference between their salary and value on the FA market. I also didn’t bother with trying to predict who would make the final roster spot, or which minor leaguers would get playing time over the course of the season.
What I’m not trying to do is predict how good the Twins will be. I just wanted to take a look at how well they were using their money.
Not surprisingly, Joe Mauer is the Twins most valuable asset. He is a young player who can hit playing the weakest hitting position in baseball. Not only that but he is very good defensively at his position. Mauer’s contract is a great value for the Twins. The team’s next most valuable asset is Adam Everett. Everett, to this point in his career, has been an all-time great level defender at another key defensive position. In terms of straight wins he isn’t as valuable as Morneau, but considering how little he is getting paid, he is a great asset. Check out this post over at The Other Fifteen projecting WAR values for every SS in the MLB next season.
Some other interesting things:
The Twins backup catcher projects as a more valuable player then two of their starters. Gomez, despite needing to work a lot more on hitting, projects as the teams 5th most valuable position player in terms of wins due to, again, plus defense at a premium position.
Cuddyer was and probably would still be a much more valuable asset to the Twins at 3rd base than in RF. Here is what his what his line would look like if he were going to play 3rd instead of RF:
I projected Kubel in LF because he is not only a capable left fielder, he probably should be starting there. Here is what he looks like if they are going to make him a permanent DH:
So if I were running things:
Move Cuddyer to third, Kubel to left, Young to right.
Don’t sign Lamb.
Don’t sign Monroe.
Sign Bonds to DH.
Sign someone like a Kielty as the 4th OF and maybe a semi-platoon partner for Bonds to get him some extra rest.
Assuming Bonds wouldn’t want to play for the Twins, just use Jones or Buscher as the other half of the DH platoon.
I know the Twins are in the midst of a rebuilding phase and as such might not be the best fit for Bonds, they do have room for him (or did before signing Lamb). I also just really want to watch him hit :(
Anyway, on to the pitchers:
The playing time/ERA projections are a combination of CHONE projections and PECOTA.
Again this isn’t everyone who will pitch this year. In fact, two of these guys might not be on the opening day roster and there will almost certainly be someone I ignored who is. I didn’t give any leverage bonuses.
The Twins pitching staff this year is one thing above all else, cheap. Before the addition of Hernandez the whole staff was going to cost only about $15m. The Twins stockpiling of young arms should really start to pay off this season. Despite only being projected to start 110 innings Liriano projects as the most valuable pitcher in the organization. I don’t think anyone can disagree with that. His upside is so high. The next three spots in the rotation should all be pretty solid and as they are all pre-arb guys, they are generating a ton of value for the team. Being that he is another pre-arb guy, Neshek is the most valuable guy in the pen for the Twins. The fact that Nathan’s salary works out as "fair" shows just how non-linear the relief market is in terms of the amount of talent you get per dollar. Obviously that makes some sense since the top end guys are all pitching in much higher leverage situations…
Well, let me have it.
Can't stop listening to this:
Posted bySL__72 at 3:19 PM
Labels: Adam Everett, Barry Bonds, Carlos Gomez, Francisco Liriano, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins, WAR