Twins Run Projections
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Twins Player Projections:
Using Sean (Chone) Smith's "CHONE" projections I've computed some approximate run projections for Twins hitters for next year. These projections are of a player's overall value, positionally adjusted offense combined with defense. The numbers I'm working with can be found here.
These values are based on playing a full season at the position as a starter, about 130 games for catchers and 155 at the other positions.
C
Mauer: 44 Total Runs Above Average
Redmond: 10
1B
Morneau: 11
Cuddyer: -4
Lamb: -20
2B
Harris -8
Punto -15
Casilla: -23
3B
Cuddyer 11
Lamb -2
Harris -5
Punto -12
Buscher -23
SS
Everett 9
Harris -3
Punto -9
Casilla -19
LF/RF
Kubel -1
Cuddyer -6
Young -10
Monroe -18
CF
Kubel -1
Cuddyer -9
Young -12
Pridie -15
Monroe -18
Assuming that he can play 3b at anywhere near the level he used to, the Twins would be well served to move Cuddyer back into 3b. Acquiring a real CF would allow the team to do that while starting Kubel in LF and Young in RF. Another thing I'd like to see tried is to have Redmond start at C vs. LHP and Mauer vs. RHP.
The thinking behind this:
Mauer's career OPS vs. LHP = .672, vs. RHP = .939
Redmond's vs. LHP = .826, vs. RHP =.659
vs. RHP
C Mauer
1B Morneau
2B Harris
3B Cuddyer
SS Everett
LF Kubel
CF ???
RF Young
DH Lamb
(or Cuddy DH and Lamb at 3rd)
vs. LHP
C Redmond
1B Morneau
2B Harris
3B Cuddyer
SS Everett
LF Kubel
CF ???
RF Young
DH Monroe
If the Twins are forced to do something like play a Pridie/Monroe in CF, that position is going to be a sinkhole much like Punto at 3B last season. A player like Corey Patterson would likely represent a 2 win improvement for the team and someone like Ellsbury could represent a close to 3 win improvement in 2008.
I don't think we are going to see Cuddyer moved back to the infield. I don't think we are going to see a platoon at catcher or DH. Hopefully we can at least see Kubel playing full time and someone who isn't currently within the organization in CF.
If they didn't use any platoons, started Kubel in CF with Young in LF and Cuddy in RF, the team still projects as about a win above average on offense/defense, mostly riding on the strength of Mauer's ~4.5 wins better then average (and sunk by being about 3 wins below average at DH).
Posted bySL__72 at 7:30 PM
Labels: 2008 projections, CHONE projections, Chone Smith, Corey Patterson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Minnesota Twins
Get off your ass, you've gone over a week since your last post. I'm going to Madison this weekend, when I get back I want a very thorough analysis of the Morneau/Cuddyer contracts that they agreed to today. This is HUGE, supposedly both will insure they will be in Twins uniforms "deep" into the new stadium years. Anyways, I've also heard rumors about an "imminent" Santana trade to the Mets. I've read that a deal including Ryan Church, Fernando Martincez or Carlos Gomez (but not both) and a combination of two of Pelfrey, Mulvey, and Guera. Your thoughts?
I was busy studying for my test for work until wed. then I had celebration dinner Wed. night and Madden on Thursday night so thats why I haven't been posting.
I'm wondering if they signed those contracts to minimize any fallout they were worried would come from trading Santana.