Week 17 Preview
Monday, December 31, 2007

Just kidding. Didn't have the energy to write about the Vikings anymore. I thought both them and Washington would win on Sunday... As Washington won anyway I'm kind of glad they lost because I think it could help to inspire them to make more offseason changes and also helps in the draft a little. Speaking of which, here is the draft order as it currently stands:

1. Miami Dolphins
2. St. Louis Rams
3t. Oakland Raiders (order to be determined by NFL)
3t. Kansas City Chiefs (order to be determined by NFL)
3t. Atlanta Falcons (order to be determined by NFL)
6. New York Jets
7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco)
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. New Orleans
11t. Denver Broncos (order to be determined by NFL)
11t. Buffalo Bills (order to be determined by NFL)
13. Carolina Panthers
14. Chicago Bears
15. Detroit Lions
16. Arizona Cardinals
17. Minnesota Vikings
18. Houston Texans
19. Philadelphia Eagles
20. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland)
21. Washington Redskins
22. Tennessee Titans
23. New York Giants
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. San Diego Chargers
28. Jacksonville Jaguars
29. Green Bay Packers
30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis)
31. Dallas Cowboys
32. NE Patriots (forfeited)

I'm not terribly excited by the '08 draft class currently. There is a pretty big group of QBs who will probably go in the first round but I'm not terribly excited about taking any of them there. The Vikings have the core of a really good football team so I'd prefer they take someone who can step in and play right away. Regardless of how you feel about TJ, I don't think any of the QBs in this draft represent an improvement over him until the 09/10 season, at least. If we want to improve that position for next year we'll probably have to go another route. I'd love to have one of them in the 2nd round though if he drops...

Posted bySL__72 at 9:47 AM 3 comments  

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Top 10 Albums of 2007 #8-#1.
Friday, December 28, 2007

I'm tired of doing mini bios of these artists which means they are probably boring anyway. I'm just going to post the rest of the list all at once with mini-mini bios and some links to streaming music and videos.

#8: Beirut - The Flying Club Cup
Beirut is essentially 21 year old Santa Fean Zach Condon. Due to a wrist injury that prevents him from playing guitar he plays a ukulele. He recorded his first album at age 15 and has recorded a lot of them since. This is the second Beirut album. The first, Gulag Orkestar was also really good. Wikipedia lists the genre of his music as: Indie, Folk, Pop, World. Pitchfork's description, Balkan pop orchestra, is probably a little better. You can listen to the whole album (in music video form) by going here and clicking on "Videos."


#7:Band of Horses - Cease to Begin
Band of Horses is an indie rock band from Seattle. They draw many comparisons to My Morning Jacket which is one of my favorite bands, so its no wonder I like them. They don't sound as... "southern" as MMJ though, which shouldn't be any surprise as Seattle isn't southern. This was their second album. They, like Beirut, released their debut album last year and like Gulag Orkestar, it was really good. In this case maybe even better then their follow up which I've ranked so high on this year's list. If #7 doesn't sound high, I should point out that I listened to over 100 new CDs this year.

You can stream some of their music at their MySpace page.

"Is There a Ghost"


#6: Radiohead – In Rainbows
Awesome CD but for some reason it didn’t really grab me. Probably because I have already listened to so much Radiohead in my life.

Here is a pretty cool video of "Reckoner:"


#5 M.I.A. – Kala
Female, British, Sri Lankan Rapper. This is her second CD. Her first CD, Arular, was release in 2005 and was also awesome. Her real name is Mathangi Arulpragasam and her father, Arul Pragasam, was a Tamil Millitant. As a result of this she moved around a lot living in Sri Lanka, India and London. “Paper Planes” has to be one of the best singles of the year.

Stream some music here.
Definitely check out the video for Paper Planes, one of my favorite tracks this year:


#4 Sunset Rubdown – Random Spirit Lover
Sunset Rubdown started as the solo project of Spencer Krug. He released one CD on his own in 2005 called Snake’s Got a Leg. By 2006 when Sunset Rubdown released its 2nd album the band had grown to 4 person act. I’m pretty sure Spencer Krug has to be about the hardest working guy in music. Krug is 30 years old and is one of the founding members of 5 different bands, 4 of which are still active. Since 2002, Krug’s various bands have released a total of 16 records, most of which are LPs.
Not finding a lot of stuff online for them, here is a video for the new album:


#3: Panda Bear – Person Pitch
Panda Bear is the alias/stage name of Noah Lennox, a member of the popular (I mean that in a very relative sense) “experimental” rock band Animal Collective. Person Pitch is the 2nd solo album Noah has released. This album is beautiful. It is easy to listen to, cheerful and doesn’t have any real weak spots. You can stream two songs from it and watch a bunch of videos at his MySpace page. Start with "Bros."


#2: LCD Soundsystem – Sound of Silver
LCD Soundsystem is the project of 37 year old producer/DJ/record label founder James Murphy. LCD’s music is usually described as dance punk. If I were going to make a list of my favorite tracks from this year, 3 of the top 10 would come from this album, including my favorite song of the year. LCD Soundsystem was also one of the best shows I saw this year. They opened for Arcade Fire and in my opinion, completely outclassed them. Here are those three songs, in video form:

Track of the Year: LCD Soundsystem – All My Friends (Youtube, but not the video)


“Someone Great” Another not real video, but getting the real song recording is all I was looking for:


“North American Scum” You can stream the full song through iLike (which means you can stream it from my facebook page… lol).


And finally…

#1: Animal Collective – Strawberry Jam
Strawberry Jam is Animal Collective’s 7th full length studio album. The first was released in 2000. This is the 2nd album in my top 10 that they are responsible for although the albums sound quite different. One of the reasons for this is that most of the singing on this album is done by Avey Tare (Dave Portner) not Panda Bear (Noah Lennox). One thing I think is kind of funny about Animal Collective is that they seem to have a habit of playing songs live for a long time before recording and releasing them. I saw them live at First Avenue on the day this CD was released and I think they spent less time playing material from it then they did playing new, unreleased stuff. More then any album I’ve heard in a long time, this one grabbed me and wouldn’t let go. There isn’t a bad song on it. It is really really good, from start to finish.

In an interview with Panda Bear, Pitchfork Media asked what the title was all about. His response:
“It was actually an idea that I had, sitting on an airplane, getting my tray of food. There's a little packet of strawberry jam on it-- this was, like, a year, year and a half ago. The sun was coming in through the airplane window, and I just looked at [it] and said, "Man, it'd be really sweet if we could get the music from the album to sound like [what] this looks like." I knew it was really sweet, tangy stuff, but it also has this real sharp quality to it. There was something futuristic looking about it, and I definitely wanted the album to have that sort of quality. Hopefully the music continues that sort of feeling. And the cover photo is an interpretation of that idea.”
I’d say they succeeded.

Check out some of their weird ass videos:

Peacebone:


Fireworks:


For Reverend Green (this video is obviously not “official”):


Up next: What will likely be the last Vikings preview of the season and a short bonus countdown of best concerts I saw this year.

Posted bySL__72 at 3:30 PM 2 comments  

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Week 16 Review
Monday, December 24, 2007

Ewww... I had a bad feeling about that game.

At our cabin in Michigan for Christmas. I brought my laptop and there is internet, but I didn't bring a power cord. I have 20 minutes of battery left... and I just turned it on :(

Posted bySL__72 at 6:21 PM 1 comments  

Wow.
Thursday, December 20, 2007

Supposedly a deal between Silva and the Mariners has been finalized.
4 years, $48MM.

Also, a list of the best fielders from 2003-2007 (as measured by UZR) was posted today.

The list is sorted by runs saved/allowed above average per 500 balls in play.

Best infielders:
Infielders:
24 Everett, Adam
17 Counsell, Craig
16 Feliz, Pedro
13 Bartlett, Jason
13 Ellis, Mark
Yes, Everett is 7 runs per 500 bip then anyone in the league. And yes, Bartlett is #4 overall. There was positional adjustments made to these, so theoretically those should be the top 5 infielders over that period.

Funny note: Luis Rivas made the worst infielders list at -10. Also, the "infielders" lists are only 2nd/3rd/ss.

Best outfielders:
19 Sizemore, Grady
19 Logan, Nook
15 Beltran, Carlos
15 Rowand, Aaron
14 Matthews, Gary

Torii Hunter is somewhere around 10th at 12. He is 1 behind Crisp.

Balls in play are estimated by position and games played at it.
I’m using these BIP per game:
pos BIP
3 2
4 4
5 3.5
6 4.5
7 2.5
8 3.5
9 2.5

Posted bySL__72 at 4:23 PM 1 comments  

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Pro Bowl rosters
Wednesday, December 19, 2007

I like talking about who should go to the Pro Bowl about 100 times more then I like watching it. In fact I’m usually not even aware of when it is going on. For reference, if you don’t know who is going, here is the complete list.

NFC
First interesting note, 7 Vikings are going to the Pro Bowl, 6 as starters. That is the 2nd most of any team in the NFC after the Cowboys, who have a few very unqualified players going (Hamlin? Seriously?)

QB: Favre starting is fine. I’d have given it to Romo, but its pretty close. I don’t think Hasselbeck deserves a spot though, Brees > Hasselbeck. Plus the NFC South should get at least one rep, right?

RB: Good. Westy > Barber, but at least it’s the right 3.
FB: Why not. I def. voted for him.
WR: Fitz + TO starting is good. Colston got screwed. The Saints haven’t released their list of alternates, but you have to assume hes a first alternate. He deserves to get in over both Driver and Holt… probably Fitz too. Engram and Jennings are also probably more deserving then Holt and Driver imo.
TE: Good, although Donald Lee deserves a look, maybe even over Cooley. Also, it’d be cool if someday a blocking TE got to go. Maybe AP can bring you as a thank you Kleiny.
OT: They got the wrong tackle from Dallas. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFL at running towards the right tackle and outside to the right. Colombo deserves to go. I don’t think Samuels or Jones deserve to go either, but whatever. Tra Thomas and David Deihl are who I would replace them with. The Eagles line is first in the NFL on runs off the left tackle and 4th on runs outside to the left.
OG: Good.
C: Birk is ok, I like Sean O'Hara, Jeff Faine and Jon Wade though.

DE: Kampman and Kerney def. I think I’d take Cole over Ume.
DT: I like the Williams’ starting, but Dockett needs to go. Definitely snubbed. Among DTs in the NFC he is first in sacks and 3rd in tackles. He has 1 more sack then Harris and about 20 more tackles.
OLB: Peterson and Ware are obvious, but Briggs over Sims is a monstrosity. Another obvious snubbing.
Sims: 122 tackles, 1 sack, 1 pick, 3 forced fumbles.
Briggs: 95 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 picks, 2 forced fumbles.
ILB: P-Will should start. I think Henderson, Beason, Urlacher, Barnett, Ruud, Paris Lenon and Will Witherspoon all deserve this spot more then Tatupu. I’d give it to EJ, but I think Fletcher and Barnett are the most deserving.
CB: I just don’t know about this. I wish Toine was healthy more so he could have had a chance. I think DeAgelo Hall has finally turned into a decent cover corner…
FS: :( And Ken Hamlin? Really? Put two SS in like in the AFC.
SS: Meh, I like him.

AFC:
QB: I like Garrard and Anderson (in that order) over Big Ben. Anderson is the first alt. and Garrard is the 2nd.
RB: It’d be hard to convince them that the NFL rushing leader shouldn’t be in the Pro Bowl, but FWP doesn’t deserve to go. Its amazing the little guy is still going though, so I guess you can give him that. I voted for Fargas. I’d kinda like to see Fred Taylor in there though… He is the first alternate at least.
FB: GREG JONES C’mon! Neal is Washed up! Actually I have no idea. Greg Jones is the first alternate though.
WR: Welker, Andre Johnson and Chad Johnson all deserve a spot over Housh. I'd like to see Andre in there. Chad would be fine too. Welker and Housh get too much help from their respective #1s.
TE: Gates is obv. but Tony got in for being Tony. I like Winslow, but my pick would be Heath Miller. The Steelers are averaging almost 10 yards per attempt when they throw at him. They should try and do it more.
OT: Joe Thomas = ROBBED. He is a first alternate, but still. Light and Ogden are good.
OG: Steinbach = ROBBED. He is a first alternate, but still. I’d go Steinbach, Mankins, Lilja.

Cleveland's line ranks 2nd on runs outside to the left, 4th on runs off the left tackle, 10th on runs up the middle, 9th on runs off the right tackle and 12th on runs outside to the right. They also rank 4th overall in pass protection.

C: Fine.

DE: MARIO!!! Actually this is ok, but I would have liked to see Mario go. At least he is a first alternate.
DT: Looks good.
OLB: Fine.
MLB: DJ Williams is having a great year too, but you can’t leave either of these guys out.
CB: Yup.
FS: Duh.
SS: Works for me. Wait, Polamalu got in? WTF! 10 games, 52 tak. 0 picks 0 sacks. I think Sean Jones should go, but he isn't the only one I'd put ahead of Polamalu.

Here are the Vikings Alternates:
Ryan Longwell (K) - first alternate
Bryant McKinnie (T) - second alternate
Heath Farewell (ST) - second alternate
EJ Henderson (LB) - second alternate

Posted bySL__72 at 4:37 PM 2 comments  

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Week 15 Review
Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Since Peter covered most of what I wanted to write anyway, I’m going to just copy most of his comment and add some thoughts. Hope you don’t mind my editing…

Red = Peter
Blue = Sam

First off, I think after watching the game last night, AP is still a beast, but he's not playing at 100% and he's conscious of his knee. He also needs to understand that a 5 yard gain is pretty good, he has the knack to try to turn everything into a touchdown, which is a good instinct to have, but sometimes it's unrealistic.

I totally agree with this. He is still making sick cuts, but he doesn’t seem to have the same insane acceleration he had before he got injured. I wonder if it’s just the knee brace holding him back, or if it’s something mental or if he really isn’t at 100% physically. I already thought that after his last two games, but when they showed some highlights from the Bears and Chargers games earlier this year, it made me certain. As for the take what you can get thing, there was just the one play where I saw that but it was really obvious and cost them at least 5 yards.

T-Jack:
He likes to jump when he throws, throwing off his back foot with little to no power. He needs to stop doing that.
This is definitely something he needs to work on but there is an important balance there because sometimes you just simply aren’t going to have room to step into your throw. Really I see this as three things he can work on:
1. Calculating the risk involved in making the throw and determining if it’s worth attempting.
2. Using the best footwork possible. The jump throw at Rice’s feet was unnecessary and while it was the most obvious example of this, it wasn’t the only one.
3. Simply getting better at making off-balance and running throws. I think this is something that can, to some extent, be learned and definitely is something he needs to work on.
He went back to his first-half of the season routine of forcing balls instead of just taking the sack. The first INT obviously wasn't his fault. But the second two were completely inexcusable.
Pick #2 – See my #1 above.
Pick #3 – I don’t think you can say anything about this except that it was a terrible read and/or a
terrible decision.
One more note on the interceptions: I’m pretty sure AP is a beast on defense. Like Ed Reed and Brian Urlacher all rolled up into one.
In his defense, he never seemed to get rattled and that late first half drive to get a FG was HUGE and showed his resilience.
Agreed, although 15 yards of that drive was given to them by the refs on a really weak roughing call.
He just gets too excited and wants to make too many plays, which is a good thing I think, but with maturation he will understand he can't always do that.
I hope so, but Brett Favre seems to have just learned that this year…
Overall, although it wasn't mentioned, he had a decent game. If Robert Ferguson wasn't so slow and could catch, T-Jack's line would've been 250 1 td 2 int. Considering how much they ragged on him, it's important to note that he threw for a career high in yards. He also showed some touch on passes, planting them in between the linebackers and the secondary, which is fun to see. One thing I have noticed is that when T-Jack steps into his throw, he delivers a very hard, tight-spiraled, accurate ball. This is good to see, since accuracy generally isn't something you can teach. The lack of accuracy the analysts speak of seem to be problems in his footwork, rather than fundamental throwing mechanics. This gives me hope.
This game was a perfect example of all the good and bad things I see in TJ. He was able to move the ball, able to complete passes downfield and made some nice, key, runs. I really like his ability to quickly read and accurately hit slant and stop routes. The pass to Kleinsasser was a great read and a perfect throw. He also made some terrible decisions and showed inconsistency with his accuracy (even if it was just with his footwork). I thought Orton looked a lot like TJ did at the beginning of the season, only rarely attempting a pass downfield and mostly just getting the ball to his checkdown receivers. That sort of thing really shows up in the Y/A numbers, which I would pretty much equate to OPS for a hitter in baseball.
Breakdown of who caught Orton’s passes:
WR 9-96
TE 3-27
RB 10-61
Breakdown of TJ’s:
WR 10-176
TE 1-26
HB 2-24
FB 4-17
The defense played well. Kyle Orton is worthless, and we honestly discussed as to whether or not he had that beard as a joke. Their running game was non-existent, not that TOAP (the other adrian peterson) would have done anything with blocking anyway. They completely relied on Devin Hester, who apparently can't catch, and aside from a stupid interception that gave them the ball inside our 20, they didn't even show signs of moving the ball/putting a drive together.
One thing I mentioned while watching the game and Mo also commented on was the play of Charles Gordon. He has been a really pleasant surprise this year. He not only does a really good job in special teams coverage, he has been a very effective dime corner in coverage and appears to be a really good at tackling. CB’s tackling and WR’s blocking are two things that have really helpt the Vikings become a winning team.
I was wondering what you thought of our D-line play yesterday? As usual the Williams played well, and it seemed like Kenechi was really causing havoc in the backfield. That being said, I think we're really going to miss Ray Edwards, and our lack of depth is disturbing. Also, our secondary play seemed stellar, granted we were playing against Kyle Orton. What are your thoughts on Cedric Griffin's year 2 performance, and Marcus McCauley? Also, if Antoine Winfield is anything less than an 85 tackle on Madden next year, it's a blasphemy. He's stone cold. That is all.
I thought they played a lot like they have all year. The Williams’ completely shut down the run but as a group they don’t get enough pressure. I do think we miss Edwards but Robison has a very similar skillset and him seeing more playtime probably isn’t a terrible thing. I’m not concerned about their current depth per se, but I think one more injury would really hurt them, so in that sense I am. I agree Udeze played well and I think he has all year. He was always good against the run and he has worked some semblance of a pass rush into his game.

The next two weeks the Vikings play at home against Washington and in Denver. On paper they are about 60/40 favorites in each game. FO’s playoff odds calculation has them at about a 75% chance of making the playoffs with almost the same chance of being the 5th seed as being the 6th. To be honest, at this point if I had a choice between the two I’d take the 6th seed because I’d rather play in Seattle then in Tampa with a healthy Garcia going and FO has Seattle at about 66% to be the 4th seed. It’s going to be an interesting next 2-3 weeks.

Did anyone watch the postgame interviews with AP? I've never seen two HOF athletes so enthralled with a rookie. I'm pretty sure they both asked him back to their hotel rooms after the cameras stopped rolling.

Tomorrow: Thoughts on the Pro Bowl voting results.

Posted bySL__72 at 8:37 PM 1 comments  

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Week 15 Preview
Monday, December 17, 2007

Yes I am writing my week 15 "preview" after all but 2 teams have played (and posting it the afternoon no less).

First though, AG confirmed my suspicions about the Lamb signing. He projects as a below average 3b overall but also still a solid improvement over the recent production the Twins have been getting from 3rd. I wonder though, how much of an improvement will Lamb be over a Buscher/Macri or Buscher/Tolbert platoon.

Coming into the weekend there was only one game I really wanted to see and it turned out that one (Jac. vs. Pit) wasn't on TV anyway. There actually ended up being a couple of other good games (Phi > Dal, Mia > Bal) and surprises (SF > Cinci, Indy 21 Oak 14, Phi > Dal). I haven't checked yet, but I'm pretty sure I did terrible in fantasy points this weekend. Also, it was kind of a funny week, in terms of fantasy points. Check out these numbers from my rotohog team (Name, points, cost)
Crosby 20 $19
Lewis 17.4 $28
Colston 17.4 $41
Addai 9.7 $55
Owens 3.7 $66
Brady 2.1 $103

With only 92 points after yesterday, I've only dropped 1 place in the standings. I also have the Vikings defense going tonight, so I'm hoping that Neckbeard can give them a few TDs.


Coming into this week the FO had the Vikings' chances of making the playoffs sitting at about 2/3. They calculated that their chance of taking the #5 seed from the Giants was about 15%.

With the Redskins and Saints winning yesterday, there is a little more pressure on the Vikings tonight, although it certainly should be looked at as a "must-win" game anyway. Also, with the Giants losing yesterday the chances of the Vikings being able to sneak into the #5 spot increased.

What to look for tonight:

Chicago has not been a good team this year. Their offensive game plan is a lot like the Vikings', run first and run often. The problem is that they are really bad at running the ball. Like, 31st in the NFL bad. They also like to depend on their defense and special teams to win games for them. Their special teams is living up to the billing, but you can't rely on a defense that is only slightly better then average to win you games.

Vikings Offense:

First, there was a really good piece in the Pioneer Press today about Tarvaris Jackson. It is basically just an interview with Ron Jaworski about what he has seen out of TJ in the film hes studied coming into MNF tonight. He also talks a little about the job the Vikings' recievers have done in run blocking. Definitely check it out.

Running: The Bears have had the 4th best run defense in the NFL this year. The Vikings have had the best rushing offense (by far). The Bears defense probably wants to make up for their embarrasing performance the last time they played the Vikings. Hopefully the Vikings OL is looking to rebound from an embarrasing performance last week. The Bears have struggled on runs to the left (from the offenses' perspective). Hopefully McKinnie can have a big game. The Vikings' strength is running up the middle. Here are the 2007 Bears' DTs:
Tommie Harris: Questionable, knee
Anthony Adams: IR, Elbow
Darwin Walker: Questionable, Elbow
Antonio Garay: IR, Ankle
Dusty Dvoracek: IR, ACL
Babatunde Oshinowo: Activated from practice squad, Dec 10th
Jimmy Kennedy: signed Dec 11th
Matt Toeaina: signed Dec 12th
I'm not saying you should expect another 300+yard game. Just that the Bears run defense ranking should drop a bit after this game. Then again, with Purple Jesus running the ball, another 300+ yarder is always possible.

Passing:
I'd expect to see more of what we've seen out of Tarvaris the last few weeks only more of it. Given the following:
The Bears aren't good at pass defense.
Their DT situation.
The Vikings run game.
What AP did last time the Vikings played the Bears.
No Nathan Vasher (well, possibly)
Vikings at home.
I'd expect the Bears to load up vs. the run even more then most teams already have been. I think Jackson has a good chance of breaking his previous record for passing yards in a game (204).

Bears offense.
Could be in trouble. As we all know, the Vikings have had the best run defense in the NFL this season. The Bears have been terrible at running the ball this season. Like, 31st in the NFL bad. If they want to move the ball against the Vikings, there is a good chance they are going to have to throw some. The problem with that is that they are starting Kyle Orton at QB. Orton hasn't played a snap since his dismal 15 game strech in 2005. Further damning to Orton's prospects is the fact that he has spent two seasons behind Rex Grossman and Brian Greise on the Bears' depth chart... which isn't very impressive.

Special teams.
The Bears obviously have the edge here. The Vikings are pretty good on special teams, but Hester is well... the Bears only hope. If the Vikings can find a way to contain Hester, they should win this game.

Overall:
The Vikings are 10.5pt favorites and I have half a mind to bet on them anyway. This game shouldn't be close unless the Vikings come out really flat or Hester has a big day.

Posted bySL__72 at 2:30 PM 3 comments  

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Twins Sign Mike Lamb
Friday, December 14, 2007

Bill Smith continued his busy week today by signing FA 3rd basemen Mike Lamb. It looks like the Twins now have their infield set. It also looks like Punto and Casilla will both likely not be starting anywhere. I actually don't know much about Lamb other then that he is a decent hitter. The 2008 roster is starting to take shape. All that is left now is CF.

Also, supposedly the Cubs are interested in Joe Nathan. Also, there is some speculation that Haren being traded to the Diamondbacks today could ramp things up in the Santana market.

Posted bySL__72 at 5:55 PM 1 comments  

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Twins Sign Adam Everett!
Thursday, December 13, 2007

Bill Smith has been busy this week. After agreeing to terms with Craig Monroe and non-tendering Jason Tyner he jumped at the opportunity to sign the recently non-tendered Adam Everett. I'll get to the '!' in a bit, but first I'll look at the other two moves.

I am luke-warm on the Monroe signing. For the Twins, having another right-handed bat with some pop probably looked pretty tantalizing. I'm just worried that they see Monroe as a "proven power hitter" or "proven RBI guy" and don't see the "quickly declining 31 year old bad fielding corner outfielder who can't get on base" thing. Still, Monroe could provide some value as a platoon partner for Jason Kubel and pinch hitter vs. lefties. Monroe's career OPS vs. lefties is .815 and even in 2007, his most dismal offensive season, he still managed to put up an OPS of .805 vs. lefties. As long as that is his role, I am happy to have him. If he starts over Kubel (or really anyone) vs. a right handed pitcher, I'm not going to like it. I also think $3.8m is a lot for that type of role.

Tyner has some value as a 4th outfielder as he does a good job of getting on base against righties and is also a decent outfielder. He is also cheap. The problem is that the Twins have a lot of left handed hitting talent and after the addition of Pridie, Tyner is kind of redundant. There is also the whole possibly going to acquire Ellsbury in a Santana trade thing, which would make keeping Tyner around even less useful. Not a bad move.

Yesterday the Astros traded for Miguel Tejada and as a result didn't tender their old shortstop Adam Everett. The Twins wasted no time in signing him. I really like this signing. Why am I happy about the Twins going out and signing a 31 year old SS who has only managed a career .299OBP (in the NL no less). Quite simply, Everett is one of the best defensive SSs in baseball history. Here is a pretty good analysis of Everett's value I've lifted from a good MLB offseason discussion:

"By the CHONE projections Everett is a -25 hitter, Tejada a +14. But on defense I’ve got Tejada as a zero and Everett a +31."

By the way those numbers are all in runs over replacement (although the batting numbers aren't positionally adjusted and the fielding ones are for at SS).

That means Everett projects within half a win of being as valuable as Tejada.

Reasons I like this:
1. Everett is still a league average SS overall. No one else currently within the organization is likely capable of being that.
2. Defensive talent is much MUCH cheaper then offensive talent. Tejada and Everett are a perfect example. The Astros traded 5 players to pay Tejada $26m over the next to years to give them (a projected, combined) extra win over what they probably could have paid Everett $5-6m to do. (Sidenote: poor Astros fans...)
3. The Twins have a young pitching staff and their defense wasn't looking good. Adding Everett goes a long way to help that which should reduce some of the strain put on all those young arms.

Other happenings around the league:

Yesterday, the Giants signed Aaron Rowand to a 5 year $60m contract yesterday. Compared to the deal the Angels signed Hunter to this appears to be the bargain of the century. At this point Rowand and Hunter are VERY similar players and if I had to give the edge to one, it would probably be Rowand. That said, $60m is on the very high end of what I would value either of them at over the next 5 years. The other nice thing about Rowand is that he is 2 years younger then Hunter and his offensive upside is slightly higher then Hunter's (although his downside is also lower).


And on a final, sad note, the Cubs won the Kosuke Fukudome sweepstakes yesterday. Its not that I really hoped the Twins would sign him, they didn't even hold one of the raffle tickets. Its just that the thought of having a player named FukUDome roaming the outfield for the Twins' last years in the Metrodome made me smile. Nate Silver at BP.com projected Fukudome to hit .289/.401/.504 for the Cubbies next year. While I love the method, I'd definitely bet on the under because as it is a purely mathematical projection system, it doesn't have a way to account for the effects of the whole, moving to a new country and getting used to playing against tougher competition over a longer season thing.

Posted bySL__72 at 11:45 AM 0 comments  

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Top 10 Albums of 2007: #9, The National - Boxer
Tuesday, December 11, 2007

I don't know any cool stories about The National. They are a band. An indie rock band from New York. Well, apparently from Ohio and based in New York. The National is composed of 2 pairs of brothers and some other guy who got their start playing together after work and on weekends. The other guy, Matt Berninger, is the bands' lead singer and his powerful baritone voice is their most distinctive characteristic.

Their first album, The National, was recorded and released before they ever played a live show. The album itself wasn't very successful, but was good enough to get noticed by a few obscure music publications. In 2003, after the release of their second album Sad Songs for Dirty Lovers, things began to roll. By the time they released their third album, Alligator, in 2005 they were full fledged rock stars. Ok, well not quite, but they were well on their way to becoming indie rock stars... which is basically the same, only with less money and less fame and less, well, everything I imagine. Except their fans are cooler. Or maybe, more nerdy and pretentious.

Anyway, Aligator was the first album of theirs that I heard and to be honest I wasn't a fan at first. After a couple of listens it began to grown on me and eventually it became one of my favorite albums of the year. This time around they got the guy who made my favorite album of that year (Sufjan Stevens) to play piano on a number tracks. So, uhh, check it out, its pretty awesome:

The first two songs from the album, "Fake Empire" and "Mistaken for Strangers" can be found on their MySpace page. Also here is a pretty good video:



Since I mentioned it and have recently been listening to it a lot again...

Two videos for songs off of Illinois (or Come on Feel the Illinoise) by Sufjan Stevens:


Posted bySL__72 at 9:49 AM 0 comments  

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Week 14 Review
Monday, December 10, 2007

This was easily one of the most boring football games I've watch all year. It really seemed like the Vikings phoned in their performance this week. Luckily, they were playing a team that is so bad that it was still more then enough to get the job done.

In fact, I think this was the worst Sundays for watching football in recent memory:
Packer vs. Raiders... who cares + blowout.
Vikings @ 49ers... never close + boring in general.
Steelers @ Pats... decent for a while, but opposite the Vikings game and essentially over with 12 minutes left in the 3rd. Also turned into a blowout.
Colts @ Ravens... I like Peyton AND the Ravens, but another blowout. Highlight was probably turning it back on with about 5 minutes remaining in the 4th and getting to watch Troy Smith lead the Ravens on a decent TD drive. And I would not consider myself to be a fan of Smith.

Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on the Vikings/9ers:

P-Will is a beast (That goes for both of them, but I'm talking about the SF version). I was shocked when I opened up the box score and saw that he only had 6 tackles and 2 assists. His highlight-worthy % on tackles must have been approx. 100%.

Chad Greenway seemed to be more active then usual. So much so that seeing 8 tackles, 5 assists after his name in the box score was not surprising. I think the Vikings might have 2 of their LB spots solidified for the next couple years.

Vikings: Best non-OL blocking team in the NFL?

C. Taylor: 8 rushes, 101yads
T. Jackson: 9 rushes, 13 yards
A. Peterson: 13 rushes, 3 yards

#1 WTF?
#2 Did P-Will even tackle anyone other then AP? Come on P-Will, thats your boy!

M. Hicks: 5 kick returns, 170 yards, 34 avg.
M. Lewis: 1 punt return, 8 yards
N. Clements: 4 punt returns, 32 yards

A. Allison: 1 kick return, 22 yards
B. Wade: 1 punt return, 6 yards

#1 See? I told you they had that going for them.
#2 I seem to remember MeMo returning at least 1 punt and I don't remember B-Wade returning any. Is the box score wrong or is my memory? If the NFL is stealing stats from MeMo I'm going to be pissed!
#3 Can I call him B-Wade? Or is that too close to D-Wade for someone with his skill set?

Tomorrow: #9 album of the year. Exciting, right!?

Posted bySL__72 at 5:51 PM 6 comments  

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Week 14 Preview
Saturday, December 8, 2007

Vikings DVOA: 16.5% (#10)
49ers DVOA: -45.9% (#32)
In fact, DVOA has the 9ers ranked last on offense and 2nd to last on defense. They are, however, 4th on special teams, so at least they have that going for them...
This game shouldn't be close. Off with Childress' head if they lose.

Posted bySL__72 at 10:53 PM 2 comments  

Top 10 Albums of 2007: #10, Jens Lekman - Night Falls Over Kortedala
Thursday, December 6, 2007

Jens Lekman is 26 year old singer/songwriter from Sweden. Wikipedia classifies his music as "Swedish indie pop," but a lot of his lyrics are written in English, including this whole album. Lekman started his music career by self recording and releasing music in the early 00's. Due to the effectiveness of distributing music over the internet, he was already a well-known artist in Sweden by the time his first full-length album, When I Said I Wanted to Be Your Dog, was released in 2004. The album was a hit in Sweden, reaching 6 on the charts there earning Lekman 3 Swedish Grammy nominations.

Night Falls Over Kortedala, Lekman's second full-length record, was released this September in Sweden and October in the US. In the US the album recieved mostly very positive reviews. Entertainment Weekly rated it 91/100 saying:
"The album's sound is a swirl of sparkly '60s orchestration and horns--an achievement worth a thousands days of nights."
Online music publication Pitchfork gave the ablum a 90 and said:
"... these elements make for Lekman's best record, one likely to captivate even those who were skeptical of his previous releases."

I'm not good at the whole "describe the music referencing tons of other artists no one has ever heard of" thing, so:
Its Lekman singing and playing the guitar with a grand accompaniment of string instruments, horns and other samples. The lyrics are mostly melancholy but are often (maybe unintentionally?) humorous:
Your father is mailing me all the time
He says he just wants to say hi
I send back "out of office, auto-replies"

I wanted to post a few examples of his songs but I had a hard time finding freely available ones. Here is a pretty good live video of him playing a more simplified version of one of my favorite songs on the album, "A Postcard to Nina."



And an actually video for his new album:

Posted bySL__72 at 12:51 PM 0 comments  

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Vikings Playoffs and Tigers/Marlins Blockbuster
Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Yesterday a playoff preview sounded interesting, now, not so much. Since I spent some time thinking about it, here is the short version.

If the Vikings make the playoffs they will most likely travel to either Seattle or Tampa Bay for their first round game. All three teams are actually pretty even at this point. In weighted DVOA they are rated: TB 20.7%, Min 16.5% and Seattle 13.9%. Considering they will be playing on the road, the Vikings will likely be dogs, to the tune of 3-4 points. That means, given what we know about these teams right now, they will have about a 40% chance of advancing past the first round.

Tigers/Marlins:

As for the Tigers Marlins blockbuster I think both teams did ok, although value-wise, I think the Marlins might have won.

Here is why I like this trade for the Marlins:

#1 They were likely going to let Cabrera go elsewhere via free agency in two years anyway.
#2 Cabrera's perceived value is, I think, a little higher then his actual value. Throughout his career Cabrera has consistently been one of the worst fielders in the league at every position he has played. With the exception of Ryan Braun, he was probably the worst 3B in the MLB this year. UZR rated his performance as 28 runs below average. That is more then half the difference between him and the average 3rd basemen (offensively). Unless he eventually improves his fielding, he is destined to become a DH (a position position currently occupied on the Tigers by Gary Sheffield)
#3 Cameron Maybin is an absolute stud, 5 star, 10/10 type of prospect. His upside is like, Griffey Jr.
#4 Andrew Miller's upside is like... 2005 D-Train.

This trade could go a long ways towards making the Marlins into real contenders 3 or so years from now.

Here is why I like it for the Tigers:

Granderson 27
Polanco 32
Cabrera 25
Sheffield 39
Ordonez 34
Renteria 32
Pudge 36
Jones 33 or Inge 31

The Tigers window is now. Anything (within reason) that they can do to improve their chances next year is probably a good idea.

I also like the buying low on D-Train. His problems this year are almost certainly correctable. Some things that brought his ERA up this year:
Bad luck.
The worst defense in the MLB.
Possibly a change in his mechanics.
Possibly the fact that he was seriously overworked at a young age in '05 and '06.
Without a lot of work, 3 of those things probably won't effect him next year. The other one (mechanics) can be corrected too.

I also kind of like this for the Twins. They likely couldn't compete next year anyway and this trade probably make the Tigers slightly weaker come 2010/11 when the Twins might be good again.

An interesting note: after this trade the Marlins payroll for 2008 is something like $8m! They opened the 2006 season with a $13m payroll, but 8 is just silly... I'm pretty sure Andrew Miller (with well lest then a year of MLB service time) is the highest payed player they have signed under contract in 2008!!

Tomorrow:
A break from rambling about sports to ramble about music. #10 in my top 10 albums of the year. Unless of coarse Santana is traded.

Posted bySL__72 at 11:01 PM 3 comments  

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Getting sucked back in...
Tuesday, December 4, 2007

I need to take a break from reading baseball trade rumors. Maybe I'll take a closer look at the Tigers/Marlins swap if the Twins haven't traded Santana by tomorrow.

On the the Vikings:

It has obviously been an up and down season for the Vikings. The Vikings rank 4th in the NFL in FO's variance rating, which essentially means they are the 4th most inconsistent team in the league.

In my week 7 review I posted that the Vikings still had a ~14% chance of making the playoffs. That recieved this recieved this response:

"Sam, you are a homer. They have zero chance of making the playoffs."

Since then they have gone 4-2 to bring their record back to .500. If the season ended today they would be in the playoffs.

Later, in response to:
"Our pass offense is horrible and shows no signs of improvement in the immediate future."

I said:
"while the Vikings pass offense definitely needs to improve, it doesn't have to be anywhere near "good." If they just improved from terrible to "pretty bad," they would have an above average offense overall because they are so good at running the ball."

Well, the Vikings' passing DVOA is now up to -6%. In the past three weeks their passing attack has certainly been at least average... and guess what. Their offense now ranks as solidly above average (7.6% DVOA, 10th in the NFL). In fact, the Vikings' offense in now ranked higher then it's defense! (7.6 to -3.9, remember negative is good for defense). With the 10th best offense, 12th best defense and 8th best special teams, the Vikings have moved back to 9th overall and their weighted DVOA is 16.5%.

Not only would the Vikings get the 6th seed if the season ended today, they are ranked far better (by DVOA) then any of the teams they are competing with for the spot AND have any easier schedule then any of them.

The 6-6 Lions are now ranked 26th in DVOA and have the 3rd hardest remaining schedule going forward.
The 6-6 Cardinals are ranked 21st in weighted DVOA but they have some pretty serious injury problems with both of their star receivers banged up and Adrian Wilson, Bertrand Berry, Chike Okeafor and Eric Green on all the IR. They do still have the 7th easiest schedule going forward, so they represent a much bigger threat to the Vikings playoff hopes then the Lions.

Everyone else is 5-7 and likely wouldn't make the playoffs without winning out. Of those teams, NO probably has the best chance as they have the easiest schedule.

The Vikings schedule going forward is the 5th easiest of any team! It is (team, weighted DVOA):
@SF (-45.9%, 32nd overall)
vs.Chi (-5.4%, 19th overall)
vs.Was(0.3%, 14th overall)
@Den(-8.9%, 22th overall)

All that works out to the Vikings having a 56.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Tomorrow: Either a review of the Santana trade (if it has happened) or a review of the Tigers/Marlins swap and maybe a brief preview of what the playoffs might hold.

Posted bySL__72 at 7:13 PM 2 comments  

Breaking down the Santana offers

Here is how I would rank the players whose names keep coming up as the main players in the rumored Santana trade scenarios:

1. Philip Hughes - Will be 22 this year and not only has amazing longterm potential, he probably projects as a top 20 starter in the AL this year! Depending on how Liriano comes back after the surgery, Hughes could be the best starter in the organization from day 1. Hughes is a big right hander (6'5, 220) with excellent control, two good fastballs and a very good curve. In the minors he posted more then 10k/9ip and almost 5k/bb.
2. Clay Buchholz - Another absolute stud who will only be 23 this season. Think right-handed version of Cole Hamels. Buchholz has a good fastball, good changeup and a great curve. Posted more then 11k/9ip in his minor league career but doesn't quite have the control that Hughes has so his k/bb ratio is about the same. Again, definitely ace material.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury - 24 year old with a career minor league line of .314/.390/.426. In 116AB at the MLB level last year he hit .353/.394/.509. In three levels last year (AA-MLB) went 50 for 57 in SB. He is also a very good defensive center fielder with great range. Think Sizemore with less power or Kenny Lofton in his prime.
4. Ian Kennedy - Will be 23 this year and is another MLB ready SP. Kennedy has posted a 3/1 k/bb ratio in his time in the minors and projects as high as a solid #2 starter.
5. Jon Lester - 24 year old who is a lot like Kennedy. He will be a good MLB pitcher but probably never an ace.
6. Melky Cabrera - Not really a high ceiling guy, but anyone who can be an MLB average CF at age 22 is worth looking at.
7. Justin Masterson - Big Righty who will be 23 this year. At 6-6, 245, he could become a real workhorse. He is a sinkerballer who managed more then 1k/ip in 10 starts this year after moving up to AA. Could be a good #2 down the road.
8. Jed Lowrie - 24 year old, switch hitting, middle infielder with good on base skills and + power. He might be a better fit at 2b then SS, but could probably fill the vacancy left by Bartlett at SS right away.
9. Coco Crisp - 28 year old CF who is a + defender in CF but is also a below average hitter.

Of the rumored offers, I think Hughes + Cabrera + one more player is by far the best.

It is also rumored that the Twins have already received two preliminary offers for Joe Nathan, although there haven't been any serious talks yet. The way I see it, they should either trade both Santana and Nathan or neither one. As far as I'm concerned, if they are going to blow it up and rebuild, there is no point in making a half-assed attempt at competing in 2008. The Garza for Young trade makes me think they are already looking beyond 2008. The only concern I have, with Garza and probably Silva already gone is that if they do trade both Santana/Nathan that they won't have enough MLB ready talent to get through this season. That is something they will have to keep an eye on.


Next:
Three weeks ago it looked like the Vikings season was done. Now, with Adrian Peterson healthy again, Jackson playing like a competent NFL QB and 3 more wins added to their record, the Vikings appear to be in the driver's seat for the last wild card spot. What does the rest of the season hold for this team?

Posted bySL__72 at 11:27 AM 0 comments  

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